Michael David White is a mortgage broker in Chicago.
Don’t forget that the banks are holding onto a bunch of houses that they cannot put on to the market because selling would end their solvency charade. All these sales and inventory statistics are being goosed to trick us into catching a falling knife. Realtors are always excited to hustle some dollars from you whether the market is up or down.
Hello AZDavid, it sure seems as if something very weird is going on with foreclosed properties and other mortgaged homes with a serious delinquency. thanks for your comment. mdw
Excuse me I never took statistics. I don’t understand charts could you expand in your wording please. I appreciate your effort. However most people do not understand charting.
Hello Gupper, my overall take on the inventory and sales charts is: the market is distressed. it’s a dangerous time for Joe & Jane America to buy a home. thanks for your question. mdw
Even these charts potentially overstate what a true, sustainable housing market would look like.
Several of the charts use a 10-year average line to judge if that metric is over or under a long term trend. But the 10-year average value is biased by the five (?) year bubble market, where more houses were sold and at higher prices than we can possibly maintain under a normal economy, even after the recession is truly over.
If there were some way to decouple the 10-year average lines from the froth of the bubble years, we would have lower 10-year averages and the current conditions would look even worse – but that would be true reality.
Hello RCharles, the averages are exaggerated by bubble years. the numbers on average inventory, for example, would show higher distress today if you could figure out a bubble-free average inventory. thanks for your comment. mdw
I couldn’t agree more. Many Realtors are acting excited here in Louisville that our market seems to be in better shape than this time last year, but I’ve pointed out time and time again, last year was awful, we shouldn’t be using it as a measuring point. If someone actually takes the time, as you have, to look many years back in Louisville, it becomes apparent that instead of being a good year, 2009 was simply the second worst in the past 10 or 12 years, and we have still have room to fall.
Thanks so much for putting this info together in graph form to bring it home to all of the people who want to believe in the house fairy and hope that everything is all better. It’s not.
Hi Greg thanks for the nice comments. mdw
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