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Case-Shiller Still Predicts Massive 45% Fall From Today’s Values

November 24, 2009

The 10 major cities in the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index have risen 5% from their April low, but the index is still predicting a massive 45% fall from today’s values.

Tuesday’s new number for the index showed a gain of just under .5% for the month of September, but the index remains 30% below the high in June 2006. Based upon a trend generated from the actual prices of 1987 to 1997, and generated forward in a linear projection, the index will fall a total of 62% before it reaches the trend norm.

A more comprehensive analysis of the 10-city index based upon a full 120 years of data shows current values off 36% and a comparatively modest 20% fall ahead.

Review four charts and key data based upon major real estate price indexes at “Property Price Index”.

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Michael David White is a mortgage broker in Chicago.

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  1. Real Estate Crisis Continues in 2010 | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog

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